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Market Outlook

Market Outlook 4th Quarter 2018

A year of divergence

  • The global economic outlook remains robust, but imbalances and risks have increased.
  • Labour markets in advanced economies have further improved. In the USA, wage pressures are building. 
  • The US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points in December. 

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Market Outlook 3rd Quarter 2018

Political uncertainty clouds robust environment

  • The global economic outlook remains positive, but is now less synchronized than a year ago
  • The normalisation of monetary policy is progressing
  • We still consider an escalation into a global trade war to be unlikely 

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Market Outlook 2nd Quarter 2018

The end of complacency

  • Signs of a modest slowdown in global growth are appearing
  • Equity markets are entering a higher volatility regime. A return to ultra-low volatility and complacency amongst investors should not be expected
  • An escalation of the trade dispute between the US and China would cause further market volatility in the second quarter of 2018. Uncertainty may grow if the protectionist measures taken by the USA also affect allied nations.

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Market Outlook 1st Quarter 2018

Strong momentum continues into the new year

  • Synchronised global economic growth is set to continue
  • Due to base effects, inflation in the Eurozone, the USA and Switzerland is expected to soften in the first months of the year, although core inflation rates should to remain stable or increase slightly
  • Monetary policy in developed markets is turning less expansionary, but not yet restrictive

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Insights

Handelskrieg Flagge USA China

Trade War 2018

13.07.2018:

Key aspects of the ongoing US-China trade tensions  

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